The header and the five numbers
The hero line is the whole plan in one sentence: the kind of open, where price is against yesterday's value, the overnight inventory, and the four if-then branches — Accept above the ceiling, Reject it, Buy the support, Lose it. The five numbers under it are the inputs typed at build time: overnight open, high and low, the price at build time (Now) and the VIX. Everything on the card is computed from those plus the database.
In plain words
The green box is the plan written for a person in a hurry. Read it top to bottom:
| Line | What it tells you |
|---|
| Where we are | Price in points against yesterday's close, and whether it is inside or outside yesterday's range and value. Outside both = a gap; inside both = a rotation open. |
| Gap check (MGI) | Three votes — gap, value, index — written out with the numbers. 3–0 or 0–3 is a one-sided open; anything else is two-way. |
| Kind of day | Rotation, or TREND DAY with the tells that fired. This line decides which half of the card you trade from. |
| The trade to look for | The setup with the lean badge, in one sentence with its stop and first targets. On a rotation open you get both edges instead: C and B. |
| If that fails | The opposite setup — what to do when the first idea is wrong, so you are not inventing a plan at 9:41. |
| VIX | The level and, more important, the direction since yesterday's last print. Rising helps sellers, falling helps buyers. |
| Overnight inventory / flow | Which way the overnight crowd is positioned and who was hitting the market all night, and whether price paid them. |
| Don't | The four mistakes that cost the most, repeated every day on purpose. |
The gap score (MGI)
MGI is three independent yes/no tests of the price at build time against yesterday:
- Gap — above yesterday's high (bull), below yesterday's low (bear), or inside the range (no vote).
- Value — above the value-area high (bull), below the value-area low (bear), or inside value (neutral).
- Index — the percent move from yesterday's close: at least +0.6% is bull, at most −0.6% is bear.
Three bears means every reference is above price: the open is one-sided and gap fills are rare. It is one tell among five, not a forecast on its own — the trend-day filter needs the gap to be large as well.
The level map
Every reference the card knows about — yesterday's value edges and point of control, highs and lows, naked levels still untouched from earlier sessions, the 10-day balance, overnight extremes, approved supply and demand zones — is merged when references sit within a few points of each other, and starred:
| Stars | Meaning | How to treat it |
|---|
| ★ | a minor reference (the settle, the overnight open) | a place price pauses, not a trade |
| ★★ | one strong reference: a value edge, a prior high or low, a naked level, a zone | expect a reaction; trade it with the three questions |
| ★★★ ◆ | two or more strong references at the same price — a stack | the day's best location; the lean setup usually lives here |
naked marks a level that has not been touched since it formed — it acts as a magnet and usually produces a reaction on the first touch. The map is trimmed to what price can reach today (about 1.25 × the average daily range each way), so the levels 200 points away are not on it.
The four setups
Each setup is a complete trade: the trigger bar you need to see, the stop, the targets in order, and the resting order to place before 9:30 if it has one.
| Letter | Name | Direction | Fires when |
|---|
| C′ / D′ | Hold the edge / Lose the edge | long / short | price is standing on a strong level at build time; the first trade is at that level |
| A | Accept above the ceiling | long | a 5-minute close above the first resistance with the flow confirming, then it holds |
| B | Fade the ceiling | short | a tag of the first resistance that fails: flow weaker than the last visit, the next bar makes no new high |
| C | Buy the stack | long | a pullback to the best support that holds with absorption |
| D | Short the breakdown | short | a 5-minute close below the support with the VIX rising |
The lean badge marks the setup the day's structure favours. On a trend day the badge moves to the with-trend setup and the counter-trend ones are written as scalps only.
Checks
One table, one row per thing worth verifying before you trust the plan. The coloured dot is the state: 🟢 supports the lean, 🟡 neutral, 🔴 against it or hot.
- Gap / MGI — the three votes.
- Trend-day filter — how many of the five tells fired (see Trend Day).
- VIX — under 17 calm, 17–20 elevated, over 20 hot; the direction is in the plain box.
- Flow — yesterday's cumulative-delta proxy against where it closed (did the aggressors get paid?), the overnight inventory, and the typed overnight CVD when there is one.
- Structure — the stack, naked levels still open, single prints, carry-forward references.
- History — what the look-alike days did, with the projected high, low and close for today.
Entry timing
Shown on the trader's own card: the resting orders to place before 9:30, the open-type check for the first 15 minutes (drive, test-drive, rejection-reverse, auction), month-end and expiration notes, and the last three saved lessons. The public card leaves this box out.
History — the dated matches
Every session since 2008 is fingerprinted by gap size, open location and the prior day's shape. The ones that match today are pooled: how often they closed up, the median move and range, how often they took the prior high or low, and the projected high / low / close from today's price. The table lists the eight nearest with what each did, and the takeaway says which case is the base case. It is a base rate, not a forecast — on a trend day the card tells you to plan for the down-case numbers.
The one habit: read the plain box, then the map, then the setup with the badge. Everything else is there for when something does not add up.